Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
